Latest Articles

Islamic State sleeper cells a threat to Turkey

January 27, 2015  •  Long War Journal

A leaked Turkish National Police intelligence report reveals alarm in Ankara about potential attacks by Islamic State sleeper cells across the country.

The police report, which was disclosed by Jane's Intelligence Weekly, warns of 3,000 operatives living in Turkey who are directly linked to the jihadist organization. The report also lists a number of vulnerable cities, including the country's political and cultural capitals of Ankara and Istanbul.

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Cheap Oil Won't Stop Iran

January 27, 2015  •  The National Interest

As President Obama made clear in his State of Union address on Tuesday, U.S. officials are reasonably confident that they have Iran just where they want it. They say the Iranian economy is reeling from a 60 percent drop in the price of oil, Tehran's most valuable asset, which accounts for about 50 percent of its government budget.

The White House and its allies, in an ongoing effort to prevent Congress from passing new Iran sanctions, are now using this drop in oil to their advantage. They argue that oil markets are inflicting serious economic pain on the Islamic Republic, and that this should be enough to convince Iran to reach a nuclear deal.

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The Turkey-Hamas Nexus

January 16, 2015  •  The National Interest

Last week, Israel's Foreign Ministry praised Qatar for purportedly expelling Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal from Doha. The announcement came shortly after CNN cited reports from a Hamas news agency indicating that Meshaal was to be expelled and was probably headed to Turkey. Within hours, however, CNN changed its story, issuing a correction on Twitter that read "sources close to Hamas—not news agency—say Qatar expelled Khaled Meshaal; Hamas official denies it."

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Hamas's Main Man From Turkey to Tehran

December 8, 2014  •  Foreign Policy

Israel filed a complaint with NATO in late November over Turkey's role in supporting terrorism in the West Bank and Gaza. Specifically, Israel called out Turkey for harboring and supporting known Hamas officials. The complaint specifically mentions Saleh al-Arouri, the head of Hamas's armed wing in the West Bank, who has lived in Turkey since 2010. Arouri alsoclaimed responsibility for this summer's kidnapping and murder of three Israeli teenagers, an abduction that helped spark this summer's 50-day war in Gaza.

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An Election Won't Change Israel's Challenges or Its Response

December 7, 2014  •  New York Times

Israel's most significant challenges will not go away, regardless of who holds office in Jerusalem. And elections are unlikely to change Israel's security policies.

The top priority is — and will be for the foreseeable future — preventing Iran from becoming a threshold nuclear weapon's power. To achieve this, Israel will also need to continue to sound the alarm about the potential for an ill-advised deal between Iran and the so-called P5-plus-1 countries (Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States — plus Germany). This has been a source of tension between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Barack Obama.

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Books by Jonathan Schanzer