The geopolitics of the Middle East are shifting, and Saudi Arabia is the prize up for grabs. There are two possible paths forward. One involves the Saudis moving closer to the United States and Israel. The other would align them with Pakistan and Turkey. It's fair to say the future of the region may depend on which path the Saudis choose.

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Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly called President Trump on Saturday and implored him to hold off on striking the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Trump acquiesced and punted on a massive American bombing raid that could have potentially turned the tide of the war.

Admittedly, Saudi Arabia is in a tough spot: The Iranian regime continues to hammer the kingdom with drones and missiles, threatening its oil and water resources.

But the Saudis have not gone unprotected. American warfighters and even Greek air defense teams have ensured the safety of the Saudi state throughout this conflict.

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The NATO summit convening in Ankara this week will offer Turkish strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan an opportunity to present himself as a vital ally: one with a military capable of blunting Russian aggression, credibility among Muslim and Arab countries to help stabilize the Middle East, and the ability to project power in defense of NATO's southeastern flank.

The Trump administration appears tempted to buy what Erdogan is selling. It should not.

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When the Iranian regime demanded a Lebanon cease-fire clause in the memorandum of understanding with the U.S., it was a clever move. In exchange for ending its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz, the regime sought to end the assault on Iran and to protect Hezbollah, its most powerful terror proxy, from Israel's efforts to dismantle it.

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that peace between Israel and Lebanon is "imminently achievable"—if Beirut can finally confront Hezbollah. But even as Washington presses the two governments toward unprecedented security understandings, Israel and Hezbollah continue to trade fire in southern Lebanon.

The ceasefire declared by President Donald Trump on April 16, and then extended on April 23, now hangs in the balance.

For the governments of Israel and Lebanon, the uptick in violence comes at a delicate time. The ambassadors from both nations have met twice now in Washington in a bid to reach new security understandings—but Hezbollah remains powerful enough to stymie these efforts.

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