The NATO summit convening in Ankara this week will offer Turkish strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan an opportunity to present himself as a vital ally: one with a military capable of blunting Russian aggression, credibility among Muslim and Arab countries to help stabilize the Middle East, and the ability to project power in defense of NATO's southeastern flank.

The Trump administration appears tempted to buy what Erdogan is selling. It should not.

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When the Iranian regime demanded a Lebanon cease-fire clause in the memorandum of understanding with the U.S., it was a clever move. In exchange for ending its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz, the regime sought to end the assault on Iran and to protect Hezbollah, its most powerful terror proxy, from Israel's efforts to dismantle it.

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that peace between Israel and Lebanon is "imminently achievable"—if Beirut can finally confront Hezbollah. But even as Washington presses the two governments toward unprecedented security understandings, Israel and Hezbollah continue to trade fire in southern Lebanon.

The ceasefire declared by President Donald Trump on April 16, and then extended on April 23, now hangs in the balance.

For the governments of Israel and Lebanon, the uptick in violence comes at a delicate time. The ambassadors from both nations have met twice now in Washington in a bid to reach new security understandings—but Hezbollah remains powerful enough to stymie these efforts.

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The U.S. ceasefire with Iran may be about to end – or not. Ceasefires, regardless of their length, are often much more than simply a pause in combat. Unfortunately, they are also often a starting gun for a competitive sprint in which the combatants seek to rearm for the next conflict. The side that makes better use of the ceasefire can lose fewer lives in the next conflict.

When the war erupted on February 28, Iran fired hundreds of ballistic missiles across the region. The Israel Defense Forces intercepted around 90% of those fired toward Israel. The U.S. and its Gulf partners intercepted "1,700 ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones," Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on April 8.

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U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack raised eyebrows last weekend at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum when he stated, "Turkey is not a country to be messed with," — a remark intended to blame Israel for heightened tensions between Ankara and Jerusalem. Blood pressures rose further after Barrack equated Hezbollah and Israel, remarking that both were "equally untrustworthy."

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