The Israel Defense Force (IDF) announced today, September 12, that the southern army of Hamas in Gaza, called the Rafah Brigade, had been dismantled. The spokesman's office said 2,000 Hamas fighters had been killed, and that 80 percent of the tunnels in the area had been destroyed. This comes just days after Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declared that Hamas no longer existed as a military force in Gaza, and that it was time for Israel to head north because a war with Hezbollah in Lebanon is looming.

What to make of this?

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In 1979, Egypt made history as the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel, building on a set of two foundational documents widely referred to as the Camp David Accords. For decades, the peace between the two countries has been a cold one. Anti-Israel rhetoric has remained alarmingly high in Egypt, while people-to-people connections have been abysmally low. Nevertheless, the peace has held.

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ollowing the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in late July, Hamas's de facto foreign minister Khaled Meshal was the presumed frontrunner in the contest for succession. In a surprising twist, Hamas elevated Gaza leader and October 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar instead.

Snubbed and marginalized, Meshal appeared destined for irrelevance. But desperate times call for desperate measures. Last week, Meshal urged Palestinians in the West Bank to resume "attacks of self-sacrifice"—i.e., suicide bombings—against Israelis.

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Israel has two objectives in Gaza, and they haven't changed since 10/7. One is the destruction of Hamas. The other is the return of all the remaining hostages. Thus far, Israel has largely achieved its first objective. Hamas is losing the war. However, despite significant achievements on the battlefield, Israel has failed to achieve its second objective.

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The past 48 hours have been the most dramatic and consequential of any since Hamas's war against Israel began on October 7, 2023. More than that: they could reverse the momentum of this war which, until now, has been dictated by the Islamic Republic of Iran and its proxies.

Let's review the news:

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