There is little doubt that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's new coalition government of right wing parties, is not particularly enthusiastic about negotiating with the current Palestinian leadership. But it doesn't matter what these politicians think now or have said in the past. Peace between Israel and the Palestinians is not happening in the next two years.
The last round of diplomacy under the auspices of Secretary of State John Kerry flamed out. Having given up on Washington's ability to wring more concessions out of the Israelis, the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, has fully embraced a unilateral strategy for recognition at the United Nations and he is now stalking the Israelis at the International Criminal Court. This is not exactly setting the table for good faith negotiations.
The Arab League, particularly Saudi Arabia and Egypt, are historically crucial to nudging the Palestinians back to the negotiating table. But these traditional U.S. allies are not likely to lift a finger for this administration. They fault the Obama administration for enabling the rise of a hegemonic and nuclear Iran, and for failing to prevent the mass carnage in Syria.
The Israelis look around the Middle East and see nothing but conflict, carnage, instability and danger. The Obama doctrine — which includes a deliberate contraction of American power in the Middle East — has undeniably made Israel less safe. And now the Obama administration is set to provide as much as $120 billion in sanctions relief to satisfy the narrow technical parameters of a nuclear deal, which will legitimize Iran as a threshold nuclear state. These funds will flow to Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other Iran terror proxies dedicated to Israel's demise.
Little wonder the Israeli public leaned right in the last election. Israeli voters tend to incline that way when they feel threatened. Similarly, they lean left when prospects for peace are brighter. If the U.S. downgrades ties with Israel over the makeup of this new coalition, President Obama will be punishing Israeli voters for reacting to a security situation that he, in many ways, created.