The NATO summit convening in Ankara this week will offer Turkish strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan an opportunity to present himself as a vital ally: one with a military capable of blunting Russian aggression, credibility among Muslim and Arab countries to help stabilize the Middle East, and the ability to project power in defense of NATO's southeastern flank.
The Trump administration appears tempted to buy what Erdogan is selling. It should not.
In late June, the administration notified Congress of its intent to proceed with the sale of more than $700 million in General Electric F110 engines to power Turkey's indigenous fifth-generation fighter — the Kaan — overriding a congressional hold. Speaking alongside Vice President JD Vance, the president signaled he was prepared to make Erdogan "very happy" on both the engines and even on potentially readmitting Turkey to the F-35 program.
Turkey was removed from the F-35 program in 2019 after it purchased the Russian S-400 missile defense system — potentially allowing Moscow to collect sensitive data on the F-35's stealth signature. The legal framework Congress developed to address this — CAATSA sanctions and Section 1245 of the FY2020 National Defense Authorization Act — bars F-35 transfers to Turkey unless Ankara removes the S-400 and its personnel. Inexplicably, that system remains on Turkish soil.
Congressional opponents of making Erdogan "very happy" say the administration bypassed required review and failed to certify that Turkey had addressed the conditions that led to its expulsion from the program in the first place. Those objections have yet to be formally heard.
Erdogan's allies argue that Turkey is an important ally of the West and that the Ankara summit is proof of this. U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack is chief among them but is on the wrong side of this debate. Since 2024, Turkey has deployed F-16 combat aircraft — acquired through U.S. foreign military sales — to Northern Cyprus, which Turkey has occupied illegally since 1974. In June, Turkish jets harassed aircraft carrying the defense ministers of Greece, France, and the Netherlands as they flew into Nicosia for an EU meeting. These are not the actions of a loyal ally. They are the actions of a government testing Western resolve to defend its own members.
But the problem extends well beyond Cyprus. Turkey has deployed troops and proxies into Syria, Libya, and northern Iraq. Between 2012 and 2016, the Turkish government laundered $20 billion in illicit Iranian funds at the height of the effort to thwart Iran's nuclear program. Its intelligence chief and other senior officials have repeatedly hosted Hamas leadership in Istanbul for coordination meetings, and the U.S. Treasury has sanctioned multiple Turkish entities for routing funds to Hamas's military operations. Meanwhile, the Turks continue to deploy military assets in Africa.
Then there is the strategic logic of the weapons request itself. The F110 engine is the single most important enabler of the Kaan program. Approving the sale does not bind Turkey to the West — it advances exactly the capability Erdogan desires: an independent military instrument free of Western leverage. His government has stated openly that full strategic autonomy from NATO is the objective. Providing the tools of that autonomy while Erdogan pursues it is not alliance management. It is policy malpractice.
Advocates for Ankara say that NATO needs Turkey and that the alternative to engagement is losing Ankara to Moscow. This understates the leverage Washington holds and overstates Erdogan's options. Turkey remains dependent on U.S. systems for the backbone of its air force. It cannot maintain or upgrade its existing F-16 fleet without American cooperation. The instinct to wield defense sales as transactional instruments should cut both ways: leverage requires withholding, not preemptive concession.
The summit in Ankara will produce photographs, communiqués, and declarations of allied unity. What it should not produce is an advanced weapons package for a government that shelters Hamas, fields Russian air defenses, harasses European defense ministers, and openly seeks to undermine the very mission NATO seeks to bolster at this crucial juncture of this storied alliance.
Sinan Ciddi is a senior fellow and director of the Turkey Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where Jonathan Schanzer is executive director.